Friday, December 20, 2019
Dabangg 3 Box Office Prediction
Dabangg 3: HIT or FLOP?Dabangg 3 Day 1 Collection Prediction | Analysis
Salman Khan starrer action-drama movie 'Dabangg 3', which is the third installment in the 'Dabangg' movie franchise, is all set to hit the screens on Friday, 20th December. Will this third part in the series be as successful as the previous two films? What will be the opening day collection of the film? And, to what extent can Akshay Kumar's 'Good Newwz' affect Dabangg 3? In this article, we'll try to answer all these questions along with the analysis of the movie's box office prospects, and also predict the first day box office collection of 'Dabangg 3'.
SEE - Dabangg 3 Day-wise Box Office Collection Report
'Dabangg 3' is a part of a successful film franchise, as both the previous two films have been box office blockbusters. While 'Dabangg' and 'Dabangg 2' came in quick succession, 'Dabangg 3' will be hitting the screens after a gap of 7 years. And, a lot has changed since the last 'Dabangg' movie. Is the 'Dabangg' franchise still relevant? Or has it lost its charm over the long period of time? The movie's box office performance will answer all these questions at once. Obviously, Salman Khan's fans will embrace the film with full enthusiasm, but, the response of the non-fan regular movie-goers will hold the key in deciding the film's box office run after the initial honeymoon period. And, if 'Dabangg 3' can work the same magic at the box office just as the previous two films, it will not only revive the franchise but will also give a good quantifiable extension to Salman Khan's huge stardom and acting career as a solo lead.
Honestly, if 'Dabangg 3' has acclimatized itself to the present-day atmosphere and does not end-up appearing dated, then the gap of 7 years does not matter. Remember, the sequel to 'Ek Tha Tiger' - 'Tiger Zinda Hai' - came after a gap of more than 5 years, but it was still a box office success.
'Dabangg 3' is releasing on 20th December in the pre-Christmas period, and is sandwiched between a good bunch of films at the box office. The most notable one being actor Akshay Kumar's comedy-drama 'Good Newwz', who is currently is in the golden phase of his career, where even the most mediocre of his films end-up reaching up to the 200 crore mark. So, with 'Good Newwz' chasing 'Dabangg 3' at the box office, can 'Dabangg 3' thrive and perform to its fullest? Read on.
ALSO SEE - Dabangg 3 Advance Booking Report
But, since it is not a direct clash between 'Dabangg 3' and 'Good Newwz', the first week's box office collection of 'Dabangg 3' will be completely dependent upon the film itself. The first day/weekend collections will be decided by 'Dabangg 3's own pre-release hype, buzz and audience interest in the film. So, there is actually nothing to hinder 'Dabangg 3' in its opening week, and it can fully stretch its limbs and perform to its full potential. The film is most certain to take a huge opening, simply because of the fact that it is a Salman Khan masala-action movie!
A week before 'Dabangg 3's release, actress Rani Mukhejee's 'Mardaani 2' and actor Emraan Hashmi's 'The Body' have hit the screens. And, a week after 'Dabangg 3' release, 'Good Newwz' will hit the screens. But, 'Dabangg 3' doesn't have to worry about 'Mardaani 2' and 'The Body', as both the films are no match to 'Dabangg 3' at the box office. Instead, both 'Mardaani 2' and 'The Body' will have to worry about getting their screens drastically reduced and their box office journey shortened by 'Dabangg 3', as 'Dabangg 3' is going to be a wide release. And, no cinema, especially the single screens would want to screen 'Mardaani 2' or 'The Body' instead of 'Dabangg 3'. And, 'Pati Patni Aur Woh' and 'Panipat' would be significantly slow to cause any trouble. So, when 'Dabangg 3' hits the screens there will be no holdover film at the box office that can impede 'Dabangg 3's path. The only reasonable threat to 'Dabangg 3' at the box office is Akshay Kumar coming a week after.
Can 'Good Newwz' be able to put a dent into 'Dabangg 3's post-1st week box office prospects? Depends on 'Dabangg 3's own performance in the opening week. If the film does well in the first week and if it manages to impress its target audience, the positive audience word-of-mouth will help the film stay strong at the box office even after 'Good Newwz's release. And, how effectively will 'Dabangg 3' be able to ward-off 'Good Newwz', will depend on how strong the audience word-of-mouth for 'Dabangg 3' is going to be. If the film can hold its fort past first week, then 'Good Newwz' may not be able to inflict much damage upon 'Dabangg 3'. Also, both the films belong to different genre and target different sections of the audience. While 'Dabangg 3' leans towards being a single screen entertainer, 'Good Newwz' tilts towards the multiplex audience. So, both the films can survive side-by-side at the box office and continue to do well. And, if 'Dabangg 3' gets poor audience word-of-mouth then it could fizzle-out, and 'Good Newwz' will only add insult to the injury.
Here Are Salman Khan's Last 5 Films At The Box Office
Bharat
1st Day - 41.65
1st Week - 156.71 (80% of lifetime)
Lifetime - 197.34
Race 3
1st Day - 27.69
1st Week - 139.97 (84% of lifetime)
Lifetime - 166.15
Tiger Zinda Hai
1st Day - 34.12
1st Week - 206.04 (60% of lifetime)
Lifetime - 339.00
Tubelight
1st Day - 20.55
1st Week - 102.57 (90% of lifetime)
Lifetime - 114.57
Sultan
1st Day - 36.59
1st Week - 208.99 (70% of lifetime)
Lifetime - 300.67
Data Source: BoxOfficeIndia.com
Another important factor, as evident above, is that Salman Khan's masala action films -- any big-star masala-action film for that matter -- have always been heavily front loaded at the box office particularly in the recent times. And, the first week's collection have accounted for around ~75% of the films' total lifetime collections. So, if 'Dabangg 3' stays true to this recent trending of Salman Khan's films, then 75% of the film's business will be done by the time 'Good Newwz' arrives. And, there is also Christmas holiday on Wednesday, so the film will probably witness another surge in collections post-Sunday.
On the whole, going by the current buzz and hype, 'Dabangg 3's first day collection is going to huge, and we predict the film to take an opening of in-excess-of 35 crores. The film is reportedly also releasing in dubbed Tamil, Telugu and Kannada versions. We will once again update our prediction closer to the release date.
SEE - Dabangg 3 Screen Count Report: Region-wise Multiplex & Single Screens Report
UPDATE: Going by the current advance booking report, and the current situation in the country where violence have been reported from many places mainly involving students who constitute a major chunk of the movie-going audiences; and 'Section 144' which has been imposed in some of the states for around 3 days; we predict 'Dabangg 3' to just reach up to 30 crores on its first day at the box office, which is still good for a non-holiday first day. But, the film will find it tough to collect anything above 30 crores contrary to our early prediction, unless the movie witnesses a humongous surge in spot booking/walk-ins tomorrow.
Day 1 Updated prediction: 26-28 crores, can reach up to 30 crores depending upon the spot bookings.
ALSO SEE - Good Newwz Day 1 Collection Prediction
Dabangg 3 Expected Screen Count
Total Screen Count - Around an expected ~4500 screens all across India. (Read the update below)
'Dabangg 3' will be the solo Bollywood release on 20th December, and there are no big South Indian releases as well.
UPDATE: From what we hear, 'Dabangg 3' is going to be the widest release for Salman Khan at the box office, and the overall screen count all-over India can actually reach up to 5000 screens.
Dabangg 3 Budget Estimates
Total budget - Around an estimated ~90 Crores (CoP + P&A only).
Dabangg 3 1st Day Box Office Collection Prediction
Day 1 (Friday): 35+ cr.
UPDATE (19 Dec 5:00 PM): 26-28 cr. Can reach up to 30 crores.
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